The people shaping Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF growth

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, expects Bitcoin to hit $300,000 by 2029 after it maintained its $60,000 power-law support. This $60,000 level provides a line in the sand, and as of September 20, the price sat at $81,218, comfortably above that floor. This prediction follows a shift where the Bitcoin-to-gold indicator turned positive at 6% following a low near -100% in previous cycles. This indicator previously saw troughs of -120%, -118%, and -102% at various cycle bottoms. The market saw $2.4 billion in net capital inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the week ending September 25, 2026. This amount marks the highest weekly inflow since the week ending October 10, 2025, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,296. BlackRock’s IBIT grabbed $1.2 billion in that period, while Fidelity’s FBTC pulled in $701.7 million, its largest inflow since September 2025. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT fund also attracted $203.3 million during that same week. I view these massive flows as a clear recovery in institutional demand.

The battle of the titans

The rivalry between these two giants dictates how Bitcoin enters traditional portfolios. BlackRock uses its massive iShares brand to pull in huge amounts of capital through its wide distribution networks. Fidelity relies on its long history in asset protection and digital storage to attract loyal customers. These funds provide access to Bitcoin without the need for personal wallets or seed phrases. Most investors choose between them based on existing brokerage relationships or specific custody preferences. While BlackRock’s massive scale allows IBIT to dominate trading volume and liquidity, Fidelity maintains a strong position through its established relationship with investors who use its platforms for retirement accounts and professional trading.

I find the performance gap between the two leaders quite telling. IBIT holds $68.92 billion in assets under management, whereas FBTC holds $15.55 billion. Both funds charge a 0.25% expense ratio. IBIT saw a year-to-date return of -2.25%, while FBTC showed a return of -4.3%. I also noticed FBTC earned a grade of D in September 2026 because its 5.8% return lagged the 12.4% digital assets category average. You should, if you already understand fee structures, ignore the tiny fee differences and focus on the custody arrangements. IBIT uses Coinbase Institutional, but FBTC relies on Fidelity Digital Assets for self-custody. My verdict is that FBTC provides better operational diversification because it avoids the industry’s heavy reliance on Coinbase.

Institutional demand and price volatility

Institutional investors increasingly treat Bitcoin and gold as part of the same macro trade to hedge against fiat debasement. This trend explains why 2026 year-to-date net inflows reached $934 million after the outflows seen in mid-July. Total cumulative inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs hit $57.6 billion since their 2024 launch. Large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and on-chain data shows growing balances in certain addresses. Bitcoin price volatility remains high, as the asset fell toward $82,900 following a peak near $87,300 in late September. Long liquidations worth $280 million occurred over four hours after prices dipped. As of February 20, 2026, there were 214,578,476 FBTC shares outstanding. I’ve noticed that Bitcoin is trading around 33% below its 2025 peak of $126,198. Will the current momentum sustain the price above the $82,000 support level?