Bitcoin’s November 2026 $75,000 post-election rally analysis

ETF concentration and the GBTC outflow drain

BlackRock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust commands 655,570.77 BTC valued at over $70 billion. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund holds 200,712.72 BTC worth $21.43 billion. Together, these two funds control $91.43 billion in bitcoin. I see massive concentration at the top. While IBIT attracts significant capital, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust shed $21.35 billion since its transition to a public ETF.

Jane Street Group LLC holds 7,239,363 FBTC shares, including 358,500 calls and 119,400 puts. Millennium Management LLC holds 6,955,712 FBTC shares. Capula Management Ltd and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors LLC hold 4,299,112 and 4,187,281 FBTC shares respectively. Sculptor Capital LP holds 2,188,727 FBTC shares after increasing its position from 801,950 shares at the end of 2024. Brevan Howard Capital Management LP holds 21,567,122 IBIT shares, a reduction of 4,000,180 shares from the final quarter of 2024. Goldman Sachs Group holds 30,831,854 IBIT shares. Susquehanna International Group LLP holds 29,868,970 IBIT shares, which includes 12,403,900 calls, 6,816,100 puts, and 10,648,970 direct shares. Millennium also holds 18,100,456 IBIT shares, including 17,587,156 owned outright, plus 246,500 shares in call options and 266,800 in puts. Brooklands Fund Management Ltd holds 15,300 IBIT shares.

MicroStrategy’s collapsing premium and weakened financing

MicroStrategy faces a market reckoning as its market capitalization of $64.54 billion fell below its bitcoin holdings value of $66.15 billion. This marks the end of the long-standing premium for the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder. The firm holds 641,692 BTC at an average cost of $74,085 per coin, meaning it still enjoys 39.10% in unrealized gains even if Bitcoin retraces to $102,918. Bitcoin traded at $63,900 on June 4, 2026, which remains 50% below its $126,272 all-time high from October 2025. This price action occurred as over $350 billion in new equity supply from major offerings like SpaceX and OpenAI created liquidity stress. The Bitcoin price remains below the 50-day average of $81,776 and the 20-day average of $82,826.

The company’s inability to maintain its previously aggressive financing momentum led to a shift toward preferred share offerings in September 2025 that carry significantly higher interest rates for investors. MicroStrategy has not issued new convertible bonds since February 2025. Investors purchasing these bonds typically accept lower yields for the potential to convert them into shares. If you think the MSTR premium will return easily, you will be mistaken. The firm faces tightening financing options because bond buyers grew more cautious.

Tether reserves and the transparency gap

Tether released an attestation stating it held $35.3 billion in assets against $35.2 billion in liabilities as of February 28. Of those liabilities, $35.1 billion relate to digital tokens issued. This $184 billion stablecoin issuer faced a $41 million fine in 2021 and a later $18.5 million fine from the New York Attorney General.

The attestation from Moore Cayman provides only a snapshot of a single moment in time. It does not explain if reserves stay in US Treasury securities or liquid bank deposits. If a significant portion of the $35 billion sits in volatile digital assets, the valuation changes instantly when the market drops. I find the lack of asset category percentages in this report troubling. Since February, Tether issued $6 billion in new coins. How will these new holdings appear in upcoming quarterly reports?