Bitcoin post-halving consolidation and corporate treasury divergence

Market volatility and the cooling cycle

I observe the current Bitcoin market balancing bearish momentum against accumulation by large holders. Bitcoin is trading around $91,700 after it dipped below $90,000 to mark a seven-month low. This recent drop triggered over $160 million in long position liquidations on major exchanges. Glassnode data shows that 65,200 BTC, valued at approximately $6.08 billion, sold at a loss within a single 24-hour window. Such volatility forces traders to watch technical levels closely. While retail investors sold through the recent volatility, the number of wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC increased by 2.2 percent to reach 1,384, and this is the highest level seen in four months.

The current cycle shows lower upside compared to prior years, according to Galaxy research head Alex Thorn. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025, but the 2024 halving cycle shows lower volatility than the 2012, 2016, and 2020 cycles. The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index is at a low 1.75% estimate. Historically, Bitcoin entered bull markets 12 to 18 months after each halving event. In 2012, Bitcoin climbed 9,294% to $1,163, whereas in 2016, it grew 2,950% to $19,891. Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose 761%.

Corporate treasury divergence

Metaplanet recorded $1.4 billion in Bitcoin valuation gains during the third quarter, a 39% drop from the $2.4 billion it posted previously. Their holdings are 5% underwater because they acquired Bitcoin at an average cost of $108,000 per coin. The company aims to acquire 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027. They secured a $100 million Bitcoin-backed loan on October 31 to lower their cost basis. Metaplanet also reported a stock amortization cost of $26 million for the third quarter, which is the total cost to issue new shares. You know the drill regarding how corporate treasuries handle these price swings. Japan Exchange Group also explored new restrictions on publicly listed cryptocurrency holding firms. Metaplanet’s stock fell 27% during the past month and 6.5% during the past five days.

MicroStrategy faces a different scale of pressure. The company holds 840,447 BTC, worth about $54 billion, but it paid $63 billion for those assets. This leaves the company $9 billion underwater. MicroStrategy stock fell 38% this year, while Bitcoin fell 28%. The mNAV for the stock is 0.7 when counting only common stock, though the figure is 1.05 when including preferred shares and convertible debt. While the premium once reached 1.4, the current discount creates a setup. MicroStrategy stock is near $97.68 after a 5% jump, and it bounced off $92. Trading volume is down 63% from June. The company funnels cash into its STRC preferred stock, which it buys back to defend a price near $100.

Whale accumulation and technical targets

The daily relative strength index (RSI) is below 30, signaling oversold territory. While retail sentiment is negative, whale wallets containing 1,000 or more BTC increased to 1,384. This divergence suggests that larger holders continue to accumulate during these dips. Resistance clusters at the 20, 50, and 100 exponential moving averages, which are $93,400, $96,500, and $100,000.

If Bitcoin reclaims $94,000, it could test $97,000 resistance and potentially head toward $109,000. However, failure to hold the $90,000 level could push the price toward $85,000. The 2024 halving price was approximately $63,000. Will the price maintain support near the $91,600 entry level, or will the recent liquidation surge trigger a deeper slide?