Decentraland land auction revenue and 90,000 parcel scarcity

The fixed supply of 90,000 LAND units in Decentraland creates a supply constraint. Each parcel measures 33 feet by 33 feet and has no cap on height. The 90,601 parcels in Genesis City constitute the core of the platform. Users buy these parcels through the MANA cryptocurrency. This 90,000 unit limit is absolute. The 90,000 LAND units, which each measure 33 feet by 33 feet with no cap on height, create a scarcity that influences the total revenue generated during the annual land auction of the virtual world. I find the rigid supply of these 33 feet by 33 feet parcels to be a major factor in the market. The smallest size for a parcel is 16 meters by 16 meters. Adjacent parcels can be merged to form an Estate. All 90,000 units were purchased during the initial Decentraland auction. Owners use LAND to host games, applications, or creative 3D scenes. The distance from roads, districts, and plazas affects the price. The total supply of 2,193,179,327.32 MANA affects the liquidity of these trades. This fixed supply of 90,000 units creates a permanent ceiling for the number of new landowners. The platform is often criticized for technical bugs and an empty virtual world.

MANA volatility and predictions

MANA value determines the total revenue from land transactions. In 2026, a bullish scenario puts the price at €0.0895, while a neutral scenario puts the price at €0.0879. The bearish scenario puts the price at €0.0827. Last month, 63% of trades were purchases. The 2026 price range for MANA is from $0.90 to $1.80. In 2025, a moderate bullish scenario suggests MANA could trade between $0.60 and $1.20. You know that the price of MANA reached $5.79 after Facebook rebranded to Meta. In 2021, parcels sold for between $6,000 and $100,000.

Short-term MANA predictions show significant variance. One prediction for 1 month is €0.0895, a 11.51% increase. Another 1 month prediction is €0.088, a 9.53% increase. A third 1 month prediction is €0.0828, a 3.18% increase. The 6 month prediction for one scenario is €0.076, a 5.36% decrease. The 1 year prediction for another scenario is €0.0701, a 12.65% decrease. The 5 year prediction for the bearish scenario is €0.0048, a 93.98% decrease. The 3 month prediction for the bullish scenario is €0.0861, an increase of 7.29%. The 3 month prediction for the neutral scenario is €0.0834, an increase of 3.92%. The 3 month prediction for the bearish scenario is €0.0749, a 6.69% decrease.

Primary market trends

The primary market leads the virtual land NFT market with a 60% share, as this segment involves initial sales from platforms to consumers. The metaverse and virtual goods segment is 30% of the market, and the virtual land NFT market value in 2025 is USD 1.1 billion. This market has a 34.5% CAGR and should reach USD 20.9 billion by 2035. Between 2025 and 2030, the market should grow to USD 4.7 billion. The market value in 2035 reaches USD 20.9 billion, an increase of USD 16.2 billion from the 2030 value of USD 4.7 billion. Historical data from the marketplace shows $3.5 million USD exchanged in its first 4 months. During the period from March 19 to March 31, $1.3 million USD was exchanged. The average sale price in those early months was 20,324 MANA. The market valuation for Decentraland was $1.2 billion in 2022. In November 2021, a virtual real-estate company purchased a plot of land in Decentraland for $2.43 million. Previous auctions burnt 109,521,854 MANA. In 2022, Decentraland claimed that 8,000 people per day used the platform. Can the 60% primary market share survive if the 90,000 units are fully distributed?